簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2013-2-15 17:48
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裸成這樣能LOW...為何98W沒裸露卻不能LOW...
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.9S 39.9E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 150505Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK BANDING TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EQUATORWARD FURTHER UNDER THE STR WITH DECREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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