【南印】06S.Mitchell 乾空氣+低海溫逐漸散架＊

阿隆 · 2012-12-28 19:26

真快耶~編號一天後就已經發出TCFA(如上文昨晚所述:複製西太風季的標準猛爆模式)

底層的螺旋型態已較昨更明顯,跨年就靜看這隻在南印洋面上到底會爆到怎樣程度:lol?

jwpk9899 · 2012-12-28 19:28

好的真的TCFA囉另外 FMS將氣壓定為1000hpa

WTXS21 PGTW 280930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S 111.8E TO 20.5S 109.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 280630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 111.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
112.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 111.7E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM EVIDENT IN A 280510Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTER, DIRECTLY BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. A 280201Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE, WITH A FEW 30 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290930Z.//
NNNN

martin191919 · 2012-12-28 22:36

熱帶低氣壓 04U

AXAU01 APRF 280655
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0655 UTC 28/12/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 111.7E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [189 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]    : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1800: 16.6S 111.2E:    070 [130]:  035  [065]:  995
+24: 29/0600: 17.8S 110.8E:    095 [175]:  040  [075]:  993
+36: 29/1800: 19.3S 110.7E:    115 [210]:  050  [095]:  986
+48: 30/0600: 21.1S 110.6E:    135 [245]:  055  [100]:  982
+60: 30/1800: 23.3S 110.1E:    150 [280]:  045  [085]:  988
+72: 31/0600: 25.6S 109.4E:    170 [320]:  035  [065]:  995
REMARKS:
Convective organisation assocaited with system 04U has greatly improved in the
last 24 hours, likely due to Kelvin wave propagating through the area. However
low level cloud lines are not particularly well organised and there are still
low level squall lines emanating from the convection indicative of convective
downdrafts driven by dry air in the mid levels. Hence it may take a little while
to moisten the mid levels before the system can reach TC intensity.
Ocean heat content is high in the vicinity and shear is less than 20 knots.
Upper divergence currently good to east and southeast. Conditions expected to
remain favourable to very favourable over the next two days before the system
moves over cooler water off the west coast. TPW is favourable, i.e. no dry air
threatening the system. Expect development at D or D+ rate.
Cooler waters south of 20S should begin to weaken the system from early Monday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.