【印度】02B Nilam 登陸印度 FW

阿隆 · 2012-10-22 12:24

本帖最後由 ... 於 2012-10-31 22:14 編輯

中心位置5.0N-109.0E
15kts-1010mb

與92W系出同源皆為赤道附近輻合帶爆發下的"產物"!
接續三個觀察重點:
1.當92W開始壯大後是否切斷東風導引氣流的偏西路徑?
2.若東風餘威尚存後期將進入北印對92W路徑就不干擾。
3.近赤道熱帶洋面所蘊育擾動當開始旋轉是否易現猛爆?

阿隆 · 2012-10-23 18:14

桑達 · 2012-10-24 13:27

出海後减弱為18kt 幅合幅散都不錯窩度泛紅.....但是還是多個LLCC
他的LLCC是否快掛了呢?? 請各位大大位小弟解答

麻友飯 · 2012-10-24 13:40

FNMOC網頁已將93W移至INDIAN OCEAN的頁面:lol

阿隆 · 2012-10-24 23:14

晚間中心定位10.0N-96.5E(下圖紅點位置)就是在安達曼群島東方,所以已經近入北印度洋了!
昨天還在暹邏灣時有給到LOW,但今天進入北印後還沒有新的評價,若維持偏西前方有微弱旱區,但相對應最左的01A或最右邊24W前方都有大片乾冷氣流等著挑戰,所以相較下算是小Case吧?;P(目前看好整合後將發展!)

jwpk9899 · 2012-10-27 08:49

卡了3.4天的LOW 終於升到MEDIUM了

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 0544Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS A WELL DEFINED BUT WEAK (10-15 KT) LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE AREA IS JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVING SOME SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA REMAINS LOW (05-10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.