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便當S.Denny|2012-8-19 14:14
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顯示全部樓層
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
141.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO WEAKLY WRAP ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 190022Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AXIS WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT NEAR THE LLCC, AND A REGION OF STRONGER
GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
RANGING FROM 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
BANDING, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND FAVORABLE SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
哇哇~~~升MEDIUM囉~~這下精彩了~~因為98W也升MEDIUM了~~
今年西太總算大爆發了!!(其實我在期待三巴颱風 哈哈~"~ |
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