【東太】90E 接近中太 NHC取消評價

SHYUDOL · 2012-7-22 08:11

本帖最後由 ... 於 2012-7-27 14:58 編輯

好像沒人要理他...by小都

HKWCFC網主 · 2012-7-22 16:24

其實可以TCFA啦

frintezza · 2012-7-22 18:46

本帖最後由 frintezza 於 2012-7-22 18:47 編輯

HKWCFC網主發表於 2012-7-22 16:24
其實可以TCFA啦

其實NHC已經評為40%(MEDIUM), 只要調升至50%(HIGH)以上就會TCFA了

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

HKWCFC網主 · 2012-7-22 19:22

frintezza 發表於 2012-7-22 18:46
其實NHC已經評為40%(MEDIUM), 只要調升至50%(HIGH)以上就會TCFA了

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWIN ...

我的意思是90E已有了20kt的持續風速
其實離TCFA不遠矣

梅姬 · 2012-7-22 20:17

有機會形成

HKWCFC網主 · 2012-7-22 21:45

梅姬發表於 2012-7-22 20:17
有機會形成

對流卻不太旺盛

jwpk9899 · 2012-7-23 09:34

1天...TCFA囉

HKWCFC網主 · 2012-7-23 16:23

jwpk9899 發表於 2012-7-23 09:34
1天...TCFA囉

有何用??
沒有AREA會受影響

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
109.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 110.2W, APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERSISTANT CLUSTER OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). A 221241Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH A CURVING BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 220421
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS, WITH LIGHTER 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 220603Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT PASS.
THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
ESTIMATED AT 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.