簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-5-14 20:11
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WTPN21 PHNC 140800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N 104.1W TO 11.2N 108.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
140701Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
104.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 105.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS SHOWN AN IMPROVEMENT OF FORMATIVE BANDING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 140449Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A TIGHT LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND LIGHTER WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH THE GFS MODEL
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS KEEP ONLY A
WEAK CIRCULATION. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150800Z.
//
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