【南海】90W - 引爆西南季風延續討論 NRL已經撤編 - 2012年 - 台灣颱風論壇 - 防災資訊、颱風、地震、天氣即時掌握

jick810530 · 2012-5-11 08:03

穿越菲律賓後進入南海就編90W

fdisk222 · 2012-5-11 11:32

本帖最後由 fdisk222 於 2012-5-11 14:37 編輯

EC表示進入南海後北上~會跟下一波滯留鋒面結合~然後為台灣連下好幾天的豪大雨~需要注意後續狀況~真的發生的話~請做好準備@@

ben811018 · 2012-5-11 12:51

南海南部的季風持續了好幾天，因為南海北部高壓的盤據使西南季風一直被壓抑著
９０Ｗ目前位處的大氣環境不差～海水溫度甚至高達２８度以上
有了西南季風及跨赤道暖濕氣流的支援，９０Ｗ進一步發展的機會相當高

目前各數值預報皆顯示本月中旬開始南海地區擾動發展活躍，水氣相當豐沛
一旦有槽線配合，勢必對華南及台灣帶來不少降雨，提醒民眾要特別注意

frintezza · 2012-5-11 14:06

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 120.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

LOW了, 對流持續發展, JTWC好像向東南重新定位?