【菲東】[取消評級] 99W 低緯擾動

frintezza · 2012-5-5 21:02

本帖最後由 frintezza 於 2012-5-8 16:04 編輯

3.2N, 128.4E形成
又是這個位置附近

龍王 · 2012-5-5 23:32

又是一個接近陸地的擾動一登陸後應該又是悲劇一場
除非他命很硬

frintezza · 2012-5-5 23:49

值得注意的是99W跟南半球的94S很接近, 看兩者會不會互相加強對方環流
但緯度太低, 目前EC都不看好兩者發展

sh991016 · 2012-5-6 00:23

本帖最後由 sh991016 於 2012-5-6 00:24 編輯

把兩個擾動的圖弄在一起!

justin8821 · 2012-5-6 17:51

一旦99W跟94S合成...威力不可小看... 但不太可能吧XDD

abc84484422 · 2012-5-6 18:08

本來就不太可能= =

一但到了0度緯度擾動將不再旋轉大不暸當個對流雲-.- (畫眉除外

jwpk9899 · 2012-5-6 18:56

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-5-6 18:56 編輯

簡單的說 99W的LLCC很模糊所以NRL一直重新定位

99WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-32N-1320E(今天11點的)
99WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-28N-1323E(今天18點的)

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.8N 132.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS STRONG 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM WITH WEAKER 10-15 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH WEAK RIDGING IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.