【西南印】[C1]12S Giovanna - 進入中緯強度減弱 - 2012年 - 台灣颱風論壇 - 防災資訊、颱風、地震、天氣即時掌握

jwpk9899 · 2012-2-8 16:58

找了這麼多人都不要領養這隻我來領養好了
看他還蠻有型的

2012/2/13 12S逐漸靠近馬達加斯加強度達到125KTS

frintezza · 2012-2-9 09:57

本帖最後由 frintezza 於 2012-2-9 09:57 編輯

TCFA了

WTXS21 PGTW 082330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 69.9E TO 15.8S 60.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 69.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
69.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 67.0E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BANDING CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC, WITH DEEPER CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE
LLCC. A RECENT 082123Z AMSU-B PASS SUPPORTS THE BANDING OBSERVED IN
IR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING IR SATELLITE SIGNATURE, FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092330Z.//
NNNN

環境良好, 弱風切, 高水溫, 強輻散, 衛星雲圖也看到雲團開始組織起來

25044 · 2012-2-9 19:28

本帖最後由 25044 於 2012-2-9 19:30 編輯

Meteo France將98S升格為TD，國際編號09R！且看好上ITC！

各大機構預測它非常有機會成為氣旋，也非常很有可能形成TS！

老J將98S升格為TCFA！
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
69.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 67. APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BANDING CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC, WITH DEEPER CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE
LLCC. A RECENT 082123Z AMSU-B PASS SUPPORTS THE BANDING OBSERVED IN
IR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING IR SATELLITE SIGNATURE, FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
重點整理：目前溫度28-29度，垂直風切不強，且擁有良好幅散和擁有良好的環境，因此
在未來24小時內發展成熱帶氣旋的機率很高（50％-100％）

衛星雲圖：

雲層比前幾天來的扎實，且有所改善，加上留好環境，
未來要形成熱帶氣旋是有可能的！