【南太】[TS]10P JASMINE 持續減弱!!

frintezza · 2012-1-31 14:05

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-11-10 15:11 編輯

到底S跟P是以那個經度劃分 ?

印象中是用135E劃分, 今天下午形成時在139.1E, 但被錯編為S, 所以我才問上面的問題
現在NRL把94S撤編, 改用95P

8/2 放一張Jasmine差不多最強時(110 knots)的圖 (nrl找不到115 knots的圖):

P.S.已差不多離開珊瑚海, 標題改南太

9/2 115 knots 圖:

jwpk9899 · 2012-2-2 09:03

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-2-2 09:03 編輯

2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT
CYCLONIC TURNING SOUTHWEST OF WALLABY ISLAND WITH CENTRAL WINDS OF
20-25 KNOTS, AND 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW DEGREES TO THE WEST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA (40 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER)
INDICATE ONLY 10-15 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SLP VALUES AS LOW
AS 994 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS POSITIONED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH A POINT-SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE CREATING MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS UNDER THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND EMERGE OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE CORAL SEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WHEN THE LLCC
EMERGES OVER THE CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.

MEDIUM了!!

jwpk9899 · 2012-2-3 09:00

TCFA 但是裸了= = 現在南半球得擾動氣旋都裸了..

frintezza · 2012-2-3 09:08

本帖最後由 frintezza 於 2012-2-3 09:08 編輯

jwpk9899 發表於 2012-2-3 09:00
TCFA 但是裸了= = 現在南半球得擾動氣旋都裸了..

但是大氣條件很好, 弱風切,高水溫,強輻散, LLCC外露情況有望改善

UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST WEST OF A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND NEARLY UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS AND THERE IS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE
CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.