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c789654|2012-1-11 23:41
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第4報增強為55kts
REMARKS:111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 118.6E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (HEIDI) LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE TIGHTLY WOUND AND CONVECTION GATHERING MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND VERIFY AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS, WHICH MATCHES DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM KNES AND APRF. AN 111041Z SSMIS IMAGE COMPARED WITH A PREVIOUS PASS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND THE LOW LEVEL BANDING IS BECOMING LESS CONCENTRIC. TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH AN AREA OF 30 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS BETWEEN PORT HEDLAND AND POINT SAMSON. AS TC 06S TRACKS INLAND, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE SHARPLY. MEANWHILE, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DE-COUPLING AND DISSIPATING TO BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//NNNN |
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