Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria moving towards Cape York Peninsula.
A tropical low (18U) is forming in the Gulf of Carpentaria and moving to the east towards Cape York Peninsula.
The low is likely to be slow moving off the western Cape York Peninsula from Friday and drift southwards towards the southern Gulf coast next week.
There are mixed prospects for any development of this low. At this stage 18U only has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Friday onwards.
The longer term possibilities next week include movement over northwest Queensland and to the west towards the Northern Territory.
Residents of north Queensland and eastern Northern Territory should monitor forecasts for the latest updates.
Last updated
5 hours ago, 07:46 pm AEDT
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 221203Z METOP-C
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING THE FLARING CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A NEW AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LLCC IN RECENT HOURS IN EIR IMAGERY. A 221204 METOP-C PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15KT)
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH 20 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THIS IS OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION
FOR CONSOLIDATION WITH THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE BOTH
INDICATING CONSOLIDATION IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS WHILE TURNING SOUTHWARD, WHEREAS THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE LEAN TOWARDS DELAYED CONSOLIDATION AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD AND CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA INTO THE CORAL SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
WTPS21 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
055 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 141.1E TO 15.7S 142.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 141.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF MORINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVENTION BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER AND VERY WELL-DEFINED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA SHOWS A
TIGHTENING VORTEX WITH THE LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WITH ECMWF
SHOWING THE MOST INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240230Z.
//
NNNN
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS STALLED OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT AND DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
92P STALLING OUT OVER LAND AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 141.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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