king111807

  熱帶低壓  
編號：06 F ( 16 P )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2026 年 01 月 20 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2026 年 01 月 21 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 01 月 25 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：992 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
99P.INVEST.15kts-0mb-14.8S-151.3E


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S
151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AGREEANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS AS THE
SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INVEST 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN
DEVELOPMENT OF 99P, AND ONLY THE GFS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION ABOVE 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO REACHING NEW CALEDONIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, SUPPORT STRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE THAT 99P WITH TAKE
A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC升格16P

WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 159.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 159.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 20.6S 163.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 23.1S 167.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 25.1S 172.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 26.2S 176.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 26.4S 179.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 160.1E.
21JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
482 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

king111807

FMS編號06F

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 210650 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE [994HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
161.2E AT 210600UTC. POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.

WITHIN 080 TO 160 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD06F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS.

AREAS OF GALE MOVING WITH THE DRPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 25.9S 177.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 177.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.1S 178.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 26.3S 175.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 178.0E.
23JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
474 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.THE WEAKENING LLCC HAS BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED
AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE. MODELS AGREE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 999 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 17 FEET.
//
NNNN