alu

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：11 U ( 12 S )
名稱：Jenna

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2026 年 01 月 02 日 20 時
JTWC升格日期:2026 年 01 月 05 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2026 年 01 月 05 日 15 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 01 月 11 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：75 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：90 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：968 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
91S INVEST 260102 1200 10.0S 88.3E SHEM 15 0



以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0S 88.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 88.8E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS STEADILY BUILDING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 021504Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE VERIFIES
THAT A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN MONSOON TROF
IS CONSOLIDATING, AND DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY BUT RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST, WARM (28-29
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WHILE BEING SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED ON THE EASTERN
SIDE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

BoM編號11U

Tropical Low 11U to impact Cocos (Keeling) Islands as it passes close by on Monday.

Area affected
Warning zone
None.

Watch zone
Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 12:30 am Cocos Islands Time
At 12:30 am CCT

Intensity
tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour

Location
within 55 kilometres of 8.0 degrees South, 90.9 degrees East and 800 kilometres northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Movement
east northeast at 19 kilometres per hour

Tropical Low 11U is developing well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is expected to move eastwards during Sunday, before turning southeast and then southwards on Sunday night.

This movement will bring the low close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Monday with an increasing chance of gales developing during the day on Monday.

Hazards

Gales and heavy rain are not expected over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during Sunday but will develop during Monday as Tropical Low 11U approaches the islands from the north.


Recommended action
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0S 91.5E TO 10.7S 96.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 91.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.7S 89.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
031440Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041800Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格12S

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041751ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMAION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 9.7S 96.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 96.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 12.0S 97.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 14.1S 97.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.5S 95.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 94.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 17.1S 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.9S 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 97.1E.
04JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z
IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 041800).//
NNNN

king111807

BoM升格澳式C1、命名Jenna

IDW24400
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 2:50 pm WST on Monday 5 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) has formed as it passes just to the east of the
Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Jenna 11U at 12:30 pm CCT:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South 97.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 60 kilometres east of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Movement: south at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) has formed just to the east of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands. It is expected to move in a southerly direction today, and may produce
gales over the islands during this afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday morning, Jenna will be to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
turning southwest and moving further away.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are possible over the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands during this afternoon and evening. Winds should then start to
ease overnight.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue as Jenna passes by, before easing
overnight.

Seas will become rough during today, however the tide is unlikely to exceed the
normal high tide mark.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest community alerts and
warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:30 pm CCT Monday 05 January.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

king111807

BoM升格澳式C2

The forecast path shows the most likely direction and strength. The cyclone centre may take another track within the grey zone. Expect winds beyond this area. For marine impact, check warnings for coastal waters and high seas.
Tropical Cyclone Jenna lies well south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is expected to develop further today.

Area affected
Warning zone
None.

Watch zone
None.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 8:00 am Australian Western Standard Time
At 8:00 am AWST

Intensity
category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour

Location
within 35 kilometres of 15.2 degrees South, 95.5 degrees East and 365 kilometres south southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Movement
southwest at 21 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) is located well south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Jenna will continue to track to the southwest, away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands over open waters in the Indian Ocean during the next few days. Jenna is expected to strengthen today before starting to weaken from Wednesday. It is not expected to impact Indian Ocean territories or the Western Australia mainland.