king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 W
擾動編號日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 11 月 02 日 02 時
99W.INVEST.15kts-0mb-10.0N-168.7E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.6N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT.GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

king111807

這是Google AI (FNV3)的模式系集圖
海鷗的東側還有另一個熱帶擾動９９Ｗ
預估３、４天後將會逐漸發展
路徑上隨著副熱帶高壓減弱
拋物線走法機率高，但路徑變數會很大
可以再多觀察幾天，先別太緊張哦！

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 147.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.