AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N
142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER
A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GFS BEING THE MORE
INTENSE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 98W
INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY
259 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
WITH GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A WESTWARD
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 139.1E TO 10.8N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 138.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED 9.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 44NM EAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
AND THE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. A 312304Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW-
LEVEL ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 98W WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C).
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY
INTENSIFICATION WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020200Z.//
NNNN
提升卡
千斤頂
照妖鏡
