king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：95 S
擾動編號日期：2025 年 10 月 19 日 08 時
95S.INVEST.15kts-0mb-1.9S-95.4E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.3S
97.0E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A
191851Z ATMS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND THE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
1.1S 95.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.0S 94.7E, APPROXIMATELY 686 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER ROTATION. DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN
FLARING UP NEAR THE LLCC, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. AN ASCAT-B 200230Z PASS REVEALS A SMALL, BUT WELL-
DEFINED, SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS PRESENT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR, TRAPPED ALONG THE ISLAND OFFSHORE OF WESTERN
SUMATRA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND (20-25 KNOTS), STRONG
DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE GENERAL STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A CURVING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.5S 85.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 719 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LINEAR, CYCLING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S, WITH PRIMARILY NAVGEM SHOWING A
BROAD CIRCULATION, THEN FALLING OFF AFTER TAU 48. IT IS SUSPECTED
THAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL
SURGE FLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHICH IS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.5S 76.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.