king111807

  二級颶風  
編號：09 L
名稱：Imelda

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 23 日 06 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 09 月 28 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 10 月 02 日 23 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：85 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：966 毫巴

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
94L.INVEST.25kts-1010mb-17.2N-60.7W

NHC : 10%

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing concentrated, but disorganized, showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  By the latter
part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall
are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight
and Tuesday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

NHC展望提升至20%

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.  The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至30%

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday, and across
the Dominican Republic beginning late Wednesday.  The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be more conducive for development late this week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is
in the vicinity of the Bahamas.  Interests in the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至Medium，40%

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized since
yesterday in association with a tropical wave centered near Puerto
Rico.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10
to 15 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic through early tomorrow.  The system
is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic.  A tropical depression is likely
to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas late
this week.  Interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至50%

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave centered near the Dominican Republic continues to
produces widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The
wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph,
spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic through today.  The system is then expected to
slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern
Atlantic.  A tropical depression is likely to form when the
disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas late this week.  
Interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms, and gusty winds across portions of the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it
moves near the southeast Bahamas.  This low is expected to become
a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and
northwest Bahamas in a couple of days.  Interests in the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system as heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely across that region regardless of development.  
Interests along the coast of the southeastern United States should
also monitor the progress of this system.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the
Turks and Caicos Islands.  An area of low pressure is expected to
form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas.  This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend, and then track
northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.  Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds
are likely across that region during the next couple of days.  
While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and
intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm
surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are
increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of
the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至90%

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a low pressure
system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.  This system is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or
northward across the central and northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and are likely to spread
across the remainder of the Bahamas over the weekend. Interests in
all of these areas should monitor the progress of the system.  
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of
the Bahamas and advisories on a potential tropical cyclone could be
issued as early as later today. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.