king111807

  五級颶風  
編號：08 L
名稱：Humberto

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 23 日 06 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 09 月 24 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 10 月 01 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：140 kt ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：924 毫巴

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
93L.INVEST.20kts-1011mb-14.2N-47.6W

NHC : 30%

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing
signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development later today or tonight,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across
the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

NHC展望提升至Medium，50%

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至60%

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become
better organized since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical
Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至90%

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A low pressure system located several hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands, has become better defined with showers and
thunderstorms becoming better organized this afternoon. If these
trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical
depression or storm later today or tonight. The system is expected
to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

FWC-N發布TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 241500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (93L)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.1N 53.7W TO 23.1N 58.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1N 53.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A
BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DEVELOVING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO SHOW INCREASED SIGNS OF
ORGINIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM AS SOON AS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS IS TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 251500Z.
//

king111807

NHC直接升格TS，命名Humberto，首報巔峰上望95節

802
WTNT53 KNHC 242036
TDSAT3

Tormenta Tropical Humberto Discusión Número 1
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL082025
500 PM AST miércoles 24 de septiembre de 2025

Los datos de satélite indican que Invest 93L sobre el Atlántico
tropical central ahora se ha desarrollado en la Tormenta Tropical
Humberto. Las imágenes de satélite visibles muestran que a lo largo
del día, el centro de bajo nivel se ha vuelto bien definido, con
convección profunda persistente y organizada ubicada principalmente
sobre el lado este del sistema. Las estimaciones subjetivas de
intensidad de Dvorak de TAFB y SAB fueron ambas datos-T/2.5 35 kt.
DPRINT y DMINT Las estimaciones de intensidad objetiva de UW-CIMSS
varían de 31 a 35 kt. Usando estos datos, la intensidad inicial se
establece en 35 kt.

Se estima que el sistema se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a
300/13 kt, pero esto es de baja confianza ya que el centro solo se ha
formado recientemente. Se anticipa un movimiento oeste-noroeste a
noroeste hasta los próximos días a lo largo de la periferia suroeste
de una cresta de latitud media. Hacia el final del período de
pronóstico, una vaguada que se acerca a moverse en alta mar la costa
este de los Estados Unidos erosionará la cresta y permitirá que el
sistema gire más hacia el norte. Sin embargo, hay bastante un poco de
incertidumbre con la velocidad de avance y la propagación transversal
del sistema. Esto es cada vez más aparente más allá del día 3 ya que
hay componentes de dirección complejos con diferencias de tiempo en
los modelos globales, incluyendo la vaguada que se acerca y la
interacción binaria potencial con Invest 94L. El pronóstico de la
trayectoria del CNH se encuentra cerca de las ayudas de consenso dadas
algunas de estas incertidumbres, y hay una confianza más baja de la
normal en el pronóstico de la trayectoria.

La tormenta está dentro de un entorno favorable para el
fortalecimiento con temperaturas de la superficie del mar cerca de 29C
y valores húmedos de RH de nivel medio. El sistema estará lidiando con
alguna cizalladura moderada del viento del oeste para el próximo día o
para que probablemente causará una estructura de tormenta asimétrica.
La guía de la EC y el GFS SHIPS representa la cizalladura que se
debilita ligeramente en el marco de tiempo del día 2 a 4, y con una
divergencia creciente en lo alto, se muestra una tasa ligeramente
mayor de fortalecimiento en ese momento. El último pronóstico del CNH
sigue estas tendencias y se encuentra cerca de las ayudas de
intensidad de consenso.


POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 24/2100Z 20.1N 54.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 20.9N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 22.5N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 22.9N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.6N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 26.0N 64.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Pronosticador Kelly