alu

  二級颶風  
編號：14 E
名稱：Narda

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 19 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 09 月 21 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 09 月 29 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：90 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：970 毫巴

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
EP, 97, 2025091918,   , BEST,   0, 120N,  960W,  20, 1010, DB,  34, NEQ








Tropical Weather Outlook Text        Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:


2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that an area of
low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico.  The system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends westward over
the southwestern Mexico offshore waters.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early to mid-next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Roberts
以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

NHC展望提升至Medium，40%

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至50%

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至60%

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  No development is expected
today while wind shear remains strong.  However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive along the path of
the system beginning late this weekend, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward at
5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN22 PHNC 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191921Z SEP 25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
191930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 97.2W TO 14.8N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 97.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
97.5W, APPROXIMATELY 230NM SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGER (EIR) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS),
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE (29-30 C)
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 97E WILL HAVE A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 112.1W//
NNNN

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a persistent but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next
couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.  
The system could produce some locally heavy rain along portions of
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization.  Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.  Locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico through Monday.  For additional information, including gale
warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至90%

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization.  Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form within the next day or so, while the system moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.  Locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico through Monday.  For additional information, including gale
warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.