king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：98 W
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 12 日 18 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 09 月 16 日 12 時
98W.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-10.0N-127.8E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2N 126.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130029Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), OFFSET BY INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINES AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE PHILIPPINES WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR ENSEMBLES, ECENS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE SHORT TERM THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5N 116.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.