(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N
137.6E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE EASTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. A 070044Z ASCAT METOP-B
SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE
VORTICES SCATTERED THROUGHOUT IT WITH 15-20 KNOT WIND FIELDS (WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF 25 KNOTS) ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE LARGER LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAIR CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 92W
WITH A POINT SOURCE ABOVE THE SYSTEM, LOW (05-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 92W TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
12/8 09Z評級Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.0N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
080707Z GMI 89GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
12/9 06Z升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 127E NW SLOWLY.
提升卡
千斤頂
