周子堯@FB

基本資料  
編號　　　　：95 S
擾動編號日期：2022 年 07 月 24 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 07 月 00 日 00 時
95S INVEST 220724 0000 2.0S 92.0E SHEM 15 1010

周子堯@FB

JTWC評級Medium

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.3S 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 93.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST. THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS HIDDEN BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. A 271509Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT WIND FIELDS
AROUND THE SYSTEM WITH IMBEDDED SECTIONS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A
BUBBLE OF FAVORABLE (05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, REMAINING OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AN ACTIVE
MJO OVER THE AREA IS HELPING FUEL THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG WESTERLIES TO
AID IN THE ROTATION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 95S OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS AS IT TAKES A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BEFORE HEADING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JTWC升格01S

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281451ZJUL2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 10.5S 95.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 95.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 11.3S 94.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 11.7S 94.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 12.0S 93.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 11.9S 91.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 10.5S 88.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 8.4S 83.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 7.6S 80.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 95.0E.
28JUL22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 281500Z).//
NNNN

周子堯@FB

BoM編號01U

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0141 UTC 29/07/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.8S
Longitude: 94.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  29/0600: 11.1S  94.6E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  995
+12:  29/1200: 11.4S  94.4E:     060 (105):  040  (075):  992
+18:  29/1800: 11.6S  94.1E:     065 (120):  040  (075):  992
+24:  30/0000: 11.8S  93.5E:     075 (135):  035  (065):  995
+36:  30/1200: 12.1S  92.5E:     085 (160):  035  (065):  995
+48:  31/0000: 12.0S  91.4E:     105 (195):  040  (075):  992
+60:  31/1200: 11.4S  90.5E:     120 (220):  040  (075):  991
+72:  01/0000: 10.5S  89.1E:     130 (245):  040  (075):  992
+96:  02/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 03/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
The tropical low has maintained deep convection near centre during the night
indicating a defined cloud system circulation centre. The system has enjoyed
strong upper divergence and ventilation due to an upper trough to the south.
However, latest F17 SSMI microwave data indicates the low level circulation
centre to be located a degree north of the deepest convection.  

System intensity is based on Dvorak analysis of 0.3 log10 wrap yielding a DT of
2.0. MET and PT agrees giving a FT=2.0. The overnight ASCAT pass indicated 30
knots in the southeast quadrant. Objective estimates from NOAA ADT has T2.9,
CIMSS ADT T2.6 and AiDT is 32 knots. Further intensification as a tropical
system is unlikely due to influence of increasing shear and dry air intrusion.
CIMSS shear estimate is around 20-25 knots. Gales are likely in the southern
quadrants due to the effect of increased pressure gradient from a surface high
pressure system to the south.

Movement has been towards the south southeast due to the influence of the upper
trough. The trough has now moved further east and since the system depth has
the reduced, the movement has slowed to southwards. Future steering in absence
of deep convection near the centre, would be from the influence of a middle
level sub-tropical ridge to the south. Hence, the low is expected to curve
towards the west from Saturday. The weak low level system is expected to move
out of the Western region on Sunday. Global and ensemble numerical models are
in agreement with a weak system moving westwards from Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/0730 UTC.

Time (AWST)        Intensity Category        Latitude
(decimal deg.)        Longitude
(decimal deg.)        Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr        8 am July 29        tropical low        10.8S        94.6E        55
+6hr        2 pm July 29        tropical low        11.1S        94.6E        85
+12hr        8 pm July 29        tropical low        11.4S        94.4E        105
+18hr        2 am July 30        tropical low        11.6S        94.1E        120
+24hr        8 am July 30        tropical low        11.8S        93.5E        135
+36hr        8 pm July 30        tropical low        12.1S        92.5E        160
+48hr        8 am July 31        tropical low        12.0S        91.4E        195
+60hr        8 pm July 31        tropical low        11.4S        90.5E        220
+72hr        8 am August 1        tropical low        10.5S        89.1E        245