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94A

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2022-6-27 13:07 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料  
編號    :94 A
擾動編號日期:2022 06 27 12
撤編日期  :2022 06 29 00
94A.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-20.5N-66.5E
20220627.0415.goes-13.vis.m.94A.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.20.5N.66.5E.pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2022擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2022-6-27 18:49 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 發布TCFA。 io942022.20220627065119.gif 94A_BAND01_202206270545.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2022-6-28 10:13 | 顯示全部樓層
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY 455
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT AN UNSEASONAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GUJARAT PENINSULA.
94A HAS WEAKENED AFTER TRACKING UNDER THE IMMENSE (25 TO 40 KNOT)
VWS INDUCED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) INTO AN AREA OF WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SSTS REMAIN WARM, PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE AT PRESENT, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING VWS, AND IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR, AND ALL SUPPORT THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
LIKELY ALREADY PEAKED AND MAY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES  TOWARDS OMAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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