簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2022-6-28 23:02
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JMA 12Z升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 117E WNW SLOWLY.
JTWC提升評級至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 117.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY
265 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE ASSESSED POSITION,
OBSCURING IT FROM CLEAR VIEW AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE
OR SCATTEROMETER DATA MAKES EXACT POSITIONING DIFFICULT, BUT A
TIMELY 281200Z SHIP OBSERVATION REPORTED 20KT WINDS AND 1000 MB
PRESSURE JUST 45NM NORTHWEST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. THE
SAME SHIP, TRAVELING SOUTH TO NORTH, REPORTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT
280900Z AS IT PASSED WITHIN 35NM OF THE CENTER, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY;
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT AIMLESSLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST IT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NAVGEM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 97W WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SUGGEST A SLOW PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION,
LIKELY REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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