周子堯@FB

基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 E
擾動編號日期：2022 年 06 月 14 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 07 月 01 日 14 時
93E.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.3N.88.6W


  NHC:40%

1. Off the coast of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Central America
associated with a trough of low pressure have become better
organized overnight.  Further development of this system is possible
while it drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of
the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

周子堯@FB

稍早升格03E

466
WTPZ43 KNHC 162056
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Over the past 12 h, there has been a notable improvement on
satellite of the convective structure with an area of low pressure
NHC has been monitoring to the south of the coasts of El Salvador
and Guatemala. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that the system
had developed a well-defined center, with maximum winds between
25-30 kt. These winds also matched a nearby ship observation in the
northern semicircle of the system. Subsequent visible satellite
imagery depicted convection gradually increasing near the
circulation center, especially in a curved band on its western
side. This improving structure is also seen well on a recently
arriving AMSR2 microwave pass. For these reasons, the system now
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity
will be set to 30 kt for this advisory.

Three-E has been making a slow cyclonic loop over the past 24 hours,
and now appears to be drifting northward, estimated at 355/2 kt. The
track guidance in the short-term is rather tricky, as the steering
currents near the system appear to be light and variable, with the
largest steering influence expected to be monsoonal flow around a
larger-scale circulation over Central America involving another
disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance
is rather spread out over the first couple of days with the ECMWF on
the left side and GFS on right side of the track guidance envelope.
After 36 hours, a mid-level ridge is expected to gradually build in
to the north of the cyclone, resulting in a gradual bend westward
and some increase in forward motion. The initial track forecast
currently lies near the center of the track suite, close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some
intensification over the next day or so, with shear under 10 kt,
high mid-level moisture, and sea-surface temperatures above 27 C.
However, easterly shear is expected to increase after 36 hours, and
the slow motion of the system may leave it susceptible to upwelling
cooler waters under a fairly shallow mixed layer depth of warm
waters in the far East Pacific. The initial intensity forecast only
shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 hours and holds the system at
that intensity for the remainder of the period. This intensity
forecast roughly splits the difference between higher
statistical-dynamical guidance (SHIPS) versus lower dynamical and
consensus aids (HMON, IVCN). Given the uncertainty in the short-term
track of this depression, this intensity forecast is of relatively
low confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 10.8N  89.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  17/0600Z 11.1N  89.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  17/1800Z 11.5N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  18/0600Z 12.2N  89.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  18/1800Z 12.8N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  19/0600Z 12.9N  91.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  19/1800Z 12.9N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  20/1800Z 12.9N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 12.8N  99.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

t02436

命名Celia

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 172035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Overall the satellite presentation of Celia is a bit less
impressive this afternoon, with the deepest convective cloud tops
starting to become increasingly displaced from the low-level
circulation center, which is now partially exposed to the east
of the convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates for 1800
UTC were unchanged from SAB (T2.5/35 kt) and TAFB (T4.0/45 kt) from
this morning, though objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique (ADT) and SATCON have decreased some this
afternoon. Unfortunately this afternoon's scatterometer swaths
missed Celia's small wind field. The initial intensity will
remain 35 kt for this advisory.

The northward drift with Celia continues, with the latest motion
estimated at 360/3 kt. As mentioned over the past day, Celia
remains under light and variable steering flow on the south side of
a broader monsoonal circulation parked over Central America. This
broad low-level circulation should gradually break down as a
pronounced mid-level ridge centered over the southern US amplifies
and extends westward over Mexico. This changing synoptic pattern
should result in Celia turning westward or even west-southwestward
as it also gradually accelerates over the next 2-3 days. While there
remains larger-than-average spread in the track guidance this
afternoon, especially in the across-track direction, this general
evolution is favored. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch
further south and faster compared to the previous advisory, and now
lies pretty near the HCCA consensus aid.

Celia's intensity may have already peaked earlier this morning, as
easterly vertical wind shear now appears to be displacing the
convection further west which is decreasing in overall intensity as
cloud tops warm. SHIPS guidance suggests the current shear will only
increase further over the next 24 hours, and Celia is no longer
expected to intensify further in the short-term. Assuming the
tropical cyclone survives the relatively hostile environment
forecast over the next several days, shear is expected to decrease
towards the end of the forecast period as it moves towards warmer
ocean waters (28-29 C). Therefore, intensification could resume by
early next week. The latest intensity forecast is a bit lower than
this morning, but still remains above most of the guidance over the
next 48 hours. Thereafter, some gradual intensification is shown,
roughly splitting the difference between the HCCA and IVCN
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of
the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a
tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 11.8N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 12.1N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 12.3N  89.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 12.2N  90.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 11.8N  92.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  20/0600Z 11.5N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  20/1800Z 11.6N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  21/1800Z 12.5N 100.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 13.7N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin