周子堯@FB

  基本資料  
編號               ：24 S
擾動編號日期 ：2022 年 04 月 21 日 04 時
撤編日期        ：2022 年 05 月 01 日 00 時
97S INVEST 220420 1800 12.8S 48.2E SHEM 20 1007

周子堯@FB

JTWC評級Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 44.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 42.7E, APPROXIMATELY 130
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 220329Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH POTENTIAL LANDFALL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A
LIMITING FACTOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JTWC發布TCFA

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8S 42.6E TO 16.5S 40.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 42.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 42.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 96
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221606Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 221817Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICTS SWATHS OF
30KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 97S IS POSITIONED NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
PROVIDES INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH POTENTIAL LANDFALL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A
LIMITING FACTOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.