A weak tropical low (03U) could enter the far northwest of the region near 10S 93E from late Tuesday or Wednesday. This system is not expected to develop, and is likely to remain in the far northwest of the region until Friday.
No other significant systems are expected in the Western Region for at least the next three days.
Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 291 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232232Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29C) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL MARGINALLY DEVELOP WITH
GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
A weak tropical low (03U) was located near 10.3S 92.1E at 11am AWST Wednesday, about 560 kilometres west northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is forecast to be slow moving today, before moving towards the west southwest from Thursday. There is a Low likelihood of it developing into a tropical cyclone. It should move to the west of the region during Friday.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Saturday:Very Low
ABIO10 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/262100Z-271800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 91.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: THE AREA IN 2.B.(1) IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT.//
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