老農民版夜神月

  二級颶風  
編號：17 E
名稱：Rick

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 10 月 21 日 22 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 10 月 23 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 10 月 26 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：90  kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：977 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
92E.INVEST.25kts.1011mb.12.8N.95.5W

NHC：40%

1. A broad area of disturbed weather continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles off the
southern coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 220130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 98.0W TO 16.2N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 102200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 98.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7N 98.3W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1940Z ATMS 88GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING, STRONG AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH BURGEONING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230130Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，80%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 250 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, continue to show
signs of organization, but recent satellite wind data indicate that
the low does not yet have a closed surface wind circulation.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the next day or so while moving slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore the southern coast
of Mexico.  Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
few days, and additional information, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC15Z升格17E,上望80節

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221457
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Over the past 24 h, the convective organization has steadily
increased in association with the area of low pressure to the
southwest of southern Mexico. Overnight, an ASCAT overpass showed
that the system still lacked a well-defined low-level center.
However, since that time visible satellite imagery reveals that the
disturbance has become much better organized and that a tropical
cyclone has formed. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB were T-2.0/30 kt, and therefore
30 kt is the initial advisory intensity.

The tropical depression is moving 280/9 kt to the south of a
mid-tropospheric ridge. A deep-layer trough is forecast to dig
southeastward toward the western United States this weekend and
early next week, which should create a weakness in the ridge to the
north of the cyclone. This would cause the depression to slow its
forward motion and turn northwest or north-northwest towards this
weakness. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance
beyond 24 h, as the various models have different solutions as to
how abrupt of a turn to the right the cyclone will make in response
to the change in the steering flow. The NHC track forecast is near
the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA, and the TVCE guidance. Based on
the current NHC forecast track, the cyclone would be nearing the
coast of southwestern Mexico in 72 h, and inland by 96 h. However,
due to the larger-than-normal model spread beyond 24 h, that
portion of the forecast track is not particularly of high
confidence.

The cyclone is expected to be within an ideal environment for
strengthening over the next couple of days, with very little
vertical wind shear, a moist airmass, and sea surface temperatures
near 30 degrees C. Therefore, steady intensification is indicated by
all of the model guidance through 60 h. There is some weakening
indicated by the models at 72 h, around the time the system would be
nearing the coast of Mexico,  which could be due to some dry air
entraining into the cyclone's circulation. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the IVCN consensus solution through 72 h but below
HCCA. Beyond landfall, the intensity forecast is near the
Decay-SHIPS prediction. It should be noted that the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification guidance indicates a greater than 60 percent chance
of a 55-kt increase in strength over the next 60 h and 65 kt over
the next 72 h.

Based on the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, Tropical
Storm or Hurricane Watches may be issued for a portion of the
southwestern Mexico coast as early as tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.7N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 13.0N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 13.9N 101.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 14.6N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 15.3N 102.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  25/0000Z 16.2N 103.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  25/1200Z 17.3N 103.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  26/1200Z 19.8N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  27/1200Z 22.0N 104.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

21Z報升格TS,命名Rick

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222101
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

A curved band of deep convection has wrapped roughly halfway around
and over the estimated center of the cyclone over the past several
hours, and a central dense overcast may be trying to form. Outflow
has been expanding in all directions, indicative of a low-shear
environment. Although there were two recent ASCAT overpasses over
the cyclone, the higher magnitude vectors were likely rain
inflated. Thus, the initial intensity of the system is based on the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates of 35 kt from both TAFB and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, making Rick the seventeenth named storm of the 2021
eastern Pacific basin hurricane season.

Rick has slowed its forward motion and is now moving
west-northwestward at 6 kt. A ridge to the north of the storm is
forecast to weaken tonight as a deep-layer trough digs southeastward
toward the western United States. Rick is expected to turn
northwestward tonight then north-northwestward by Saturday night
towards this weakness. The model guidance is still having a
difficult time agreeing upon how abrupt of a right turn that the
cyclone will make this weekend, with the GFS consistently showing a
northward motion by tonight, and much of the other guidance
indicating the northwest then north-northwest motion over the next
few days. The NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the right of
the previous one due to an overall slight shift to the right in the
guidance, and lies in between the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA,
and FSU Superensemble solutions. It should be noted that the model
spread between the right-outlier GFS and left-outlier ECMWF models
is about 175 n mi at 48 h. Therefore, the track forecast remains of
low confidence.

There is little change to the intensity forecast reasoning. The
storm is expected to be within an ideal environment for
strengthening over the next couple of days, with very little
vertical wind shear, a moist airmass, and sea surface temperatures
near 30 degrees C. Therefore, steady intensification is indicated by
all of the model guidance through 48 h. There is some weakening
indicated by the models just before the time the system would be
nearing the coast of Mexico,  which could be due to some dry air
entraining into the cyclone's circulation. The NHC intensity remains
near the IVCN consensus solution through 72 h and below HCCA. Beyond
landfall, the intensity forecast is near the Decay-SHIPS prediction.
The NHC intensity forecast also calls for a 24-h period of rapid
intensification, which seems reasonable given the environment, the
model agreement, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance that
now indicates a greater than 60 percent chance of a 45-kt increase
in strength over the next 36 h, and 55 kt over the next 48 h.

Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the southwest
coast of Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening
storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo.  There is
larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and
the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could
change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of
Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana, and by Monday morning from west of
Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday
Night, and could persist through Monday night.  This rainfall will
likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.1N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 13.7N 101.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 15.3N 102.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
60H  25/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  25/1800Z 18.3N 103.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
96H  26/1800Z 23.2N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格C1,上望100KT

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232054
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Rick continued to strengthen through the late morning, with a brief
appearance of an eye in visible satellite images.  Over the past few
hours the eye has become less apparent, and the Central Dense
Overcast (CDO) has become a bit elongated.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the hurricane late this
afternoon and was able to provide beneficial data regarding Rick's
structure and intensity.  During the flight, the aircraft measured
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 80 kt (which reduce to 72 kt at
the surface), and SFMR surface winds of 81 kt a little earlier in
the flight.  A blend of these values suggests the initial advisory
intensity is 75 kt, which agrees well with unanimous 77-kt Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The
aircraft also confirmed that the core of Rick is compact, with
tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 50 n mi from the
center.  However, earlier scatterometer data sampled winds to near
tropical storm force in the large curved band that wraps around much
of the hurricane's center at a distance of 100 to 150 n mi.

Rick has jogged west-northwest over the past couple hours, but the
12 h motion is about 335/05 kt.  There is no change to the forecast
track reasoning.  Rick is expected to resume a motion between
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days.
The track model guidance has come into better agreement, and the
only notable change to the NHC forecast track was during the first
12 h to adjust for the recent left-of-track motion.

The environment of sea-surface temperatures near 30 degrees C and
very low shear should support a fast pace of strengthening over the
next day or so.  The only factor that could inhibit the pace of
intensification is the presence of a dry moat between the CDO and
outer band, and some of this dry air could get drawn into the core
of Rick.  However, based on the other favorable factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening through Sunday
morning.  As the hurricane nears the coast in 36 h, dry air and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear may weaken the cyclone.
The latest NHC intensity forecast still calls for Rick to reach
major hurricane intensity on Sunday, despite the recent pause in
strengthening. This forecast remains on the high end of the
guidance.  

Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night.  This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.1N 101.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 16.5N 102.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 17.6N 102.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H  25/1800Z 18.9N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
60H  26/0600Z 20.3N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

老農民版夜神月

06Z升格C2,即將登陸墨西哥

226
WTPZ32 KNHC 250546
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS RICK SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WARNING AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 101.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

老農民版夜神月

已於10Z以90節,977百帕登陸墨西哥

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 250956
TCUEP2

Hurricane Rick Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
500 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST EAST OF
LAZARO CARDENAS....

Satellite imagery indicates the center of Rick made landfall along
the coast of southern Mexico about 15 miles (25 km) east of Lazaro
Cardenas, Mexico with an estimated intensity of 105 mph (165 km/h).
The minimum central pressure estimated from earlier reconnaissance
aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 102.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown