(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 154.4E, APPROXIMATELY 574NM EAST OF GUAM.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
ASMR2 36GHZ 201545Z PASS DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD, WITH SOME
SMALL DISPARITY BETWEEN WHETHER IT WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA
BEFORE OR AFTER PASSING GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 154.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N
143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. A 220635Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLC. A 221034Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 05-15 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING A WEAK CORE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED WEST OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 143.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 189
NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MUTLISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES WRAPPING INTO A FULLY-EXPOSED,
BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVED DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW DUE TO A COL
REGION POSITIONED TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOW (5-15 KT) VWS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 98W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT IN MODELING INTENSITY WITH GFS BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE, FORECASTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 232130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 141.4E TO 18.0N 139.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 232100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 140.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY
298 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 231857Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242130Z.
//
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