2. A broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central
America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central
America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late
this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. A small area of low pressure and associated surface trough over
eastern Honduras is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity over portions of the western Caribbean Sea. A portion of
the low's circulation could move over the Gulf of Honduras on
Friday. However, development there, if any, is expected to be slow
to occur. This system could then move over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico during the weekend, but by then unfavorable upper-level winds
are likely to limit significant development early next week while
the system moves northwestward or northward over the western Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. A surface trough over portions of Central America and the
southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward during the next day or two, bringing locally
heavy rains to these areas. The disturbance is expected to move
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend, and then
move northwestward to northward over the western Gulf of Mexico
early next week. However, unfavorable upper-level winds could limit
significant development during that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over
the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface
trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to
move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are
currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are
forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears
the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday. The
disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United
States, and some slight additional development will be possible
after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this
week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be
possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern
Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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