老農民版夜神月

  輕度颱風  
編號：2112 ( 91 C → 16 W )
名稱：奧麥斯( Omais )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2021 年 08 月 08 日 02 時
進入西太日期        ：2021 年 08 月 10 日 08 時
JMA升格熱低日期 ：2021 年 08 月 10 日 14 時
CWB編號日期       ：2021 年 08 月 13 日 14 時
JMA降格低壓日期 ：2021 年 08 月 16 日 14 時
JMA復升熱低日期 ：2021 年 08 月 17 日 08 時
CWB降格低壓日期：2021 年 08 月 18 日 08 時
CWB復編日期       ：2021 年 08 月 20 日 08 時
命名日期　    　    ：2021 年 08 月 20 日 20 時
停編日期　　        ：2021 年 08 月 24 日 08 時
登陸地點　　 　   ： 韓國 慶尚南道

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：25 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：25 m/s ( 50 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓： 985 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 100 公里
十級風半徑　　： ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
91C.INVEST.20kts.1011mb.8.4N.168.9W



  CPHC：30%  

1. An elongated area of low pressure located around 1150 miles
southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain conducive for some slow
development of this system during the next few days as it moves
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

數值有所反應的中太平洋西行系統,目前預報巔峰約在換日線附近

老農民版夜神月

即將進入西太,JMA已於天氣圖中標示其為LPA

老農民版夜神月

FNMOC判定已進入西太

周子堯@FB

一進入西太，JTWC馬上發布TCFA，另外JMA判定其為LPA，部分數值支持一定程度發展

WTPN21 PGTW 100130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91C)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 179.7W TO 13.3N 174.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 179.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91C) IS LOCATED NEAR
12.1N 179.7E, APPROXIMATELY 740NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091641Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91C WILL
TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, BUT SPLIT REGARDING
INTENSIFICATION, WITH ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND NAVGEM/GFS
REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110130Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JMA升格其為TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 12N 180E WEST 10 KT.

老農民版夜神月

JMA升格16W

16W SIXTEEN 210810 1200 12.2N 179.0E WPAC 25 1007

老農民版夜神月

JTWC首報,暫時不是很看好發展,僅上望35KT

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100121ZAUG2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 179.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 179.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 12.4N 177.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 12.8N 175.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 13.2N 173.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 13.4N 172.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 13.1N 167.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 12.5N 162.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 12.5N 157.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 178.6E.
10AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
553 NM NORTHEAST OF MAJURO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 100130).//
NNNN