1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely form in two to three days well
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico while the disturbance
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week well offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 131400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 107.4W TO 14.7N 115.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 107.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
107.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1358 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
130839Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WITH
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
96E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141400Z.//
NNNN
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula are showing signs of organization. Although
the circulation of the low is currently elongated, environmental
conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a day or two while the low moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 650 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization, and
recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation is
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions remain favorable
for continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later today while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week and move westward at 10 to
15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better
organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In
addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has
become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are
initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is
set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the
next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease
in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a
mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens
the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the
guidance envelope close to the consensus models.
The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical
wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the
system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity
guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak
intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity
forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast
peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.
Tropical Storm Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
715 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the depression has
strengthened to Tropical Storm Felicia. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The 900 AM
MDT (1500 UTC) advisory will reflect this change and provide an
updated intensity forecast.
SUMMARY OF 715 AM AST...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 113.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021
Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in
organization and convective banding in association with Felicia.
The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more
symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass
revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted
around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45
kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates.
Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm
SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt.
The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening,
perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some
pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The
NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through
24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the
inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable
air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual
weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through
much of the forecast period.
Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should
continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through
early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and
become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause
Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a
west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through
the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in
fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence
in the official forecast.
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