簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-26 06:12
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NHC21Z報上望二級颶風,85KT
941
WTPZ45 KNHC 252056
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021
Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite
imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent
banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon,
a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed
over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense
overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to
assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer
wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt
winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval
of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt,
while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique
(ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at
T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat
lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45
kt.
Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of
the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The
track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with
a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead
to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in
its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to
the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the
cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while
becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has
shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track
forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance
consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models.
Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to
intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a
favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level
humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest
SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt
wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its
climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just
below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours.
After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler
upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to
begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a
little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).
The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance
of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo
Corrientes.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for a portion of that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi 
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