1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche
is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the overall
system has become somewhat better organized since yesterday. Slow
development is possible during the next few days while the system
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could
form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly
northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next several days. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in
association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move
northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin
to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay
of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad
low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during
the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur
during that time period due to its close proximity to land.
However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by
Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in
the week when the low moves across the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains
could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast
on Friday. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and
little if any development is expected during that time due
to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should
begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains should also begin
to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
WTNT21 KNGU 171400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (92L)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 92.5W TO 24.6N 91.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5N 92.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD REGION OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE LOCATED ABOUT 100NM NORTH OF THE TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS SYSYTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEST-CENTRALL GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181400Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
is producing widespread but disorganized cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to move northward, and a
tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the
west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rains
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on
Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological
service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized today. This system is expected to move generally
northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM
CDT (2100 UTC). An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains will
also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Please consult products from your local meteorological service for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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