老農民版夜神月

MFR判定巔峰已過，18Z降格強烈熱帶風暴，並預測接下來將逐步減弱

WTIO30 FMEE 211823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/16/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 47.0 E
(NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/22 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/22 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 20 NW: 100

36H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 65

60H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0+

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z德法分析降至T2.5/3.0,並將其18Z強度調降至50節

29S JOBO 210421 1800 10.0S 47.2E SHEM 50 999

TPXS10 PGTW 211818

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO)

B. 21/1745Z

C. 10.01S

D. 47.18E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   21/1307Z  9.90S  47.72E  SSMI
   21/1330Z  9.80S  47.45E  SSMS
   21/1521Z  9.88S  47.37E  SSMS


   BERMEA

dom

MFR12Z降格中度熱帶風暴

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210422/1210Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: JOBO
ADVISORY NR: 2021/08
OBS PSN: 22/1200Z S0928 E04500
CB: WI 175NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL525
MOV: W 07KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 1001HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 22/1800Z S0921 E04421
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 23/0000Z S0913 E04342
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 23/0600Z S0903 E04303
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 23/1200Z S0848 E04222
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 35KT

老農民版夜神月

MFR18Z再調降定強至40節，並預測其將於+36H後減弱為填塞中氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 221238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 45.0 E
(NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/23 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 55

24H: 2021/04/23 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 45

36H: 2021/04/24 00 UTC: 8.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 55

48H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 7.5 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 6.9 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

72H: 2021/04/25 12 UTC: 6.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=3.0

老農民版夜神月

ASCAT18Z最新風場

（過濾前）



（過濾後）

老農民版夜神月

MFR新報預測其將於一天內成為填塞中氣旋，随後登陸莫三比克

WTIO30 FMEE 231859
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

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MFR00Z降格填塞中氣旋

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT numéro 16
(JOBO)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 75 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1003 hPa.
Position le 24 avril à 04 heures locales: 8.0 Sud / 41.5 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 2065 km au secteur: NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 670 km au secteur: NORD-OUEST
Déplacement: OUEST-NORD-OUEST, à 17 km/h.

dom

即將登陸，JTWC06Z定強TS下限

29S JOBO 210424 0600 7.9S 40.7E SHEM 35 1005