開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

29S.Jobo 登陸莫三比克

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2021-4-15 18:00 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶氣旋  
編號:16-20202021 ( 29 S )
名稱:Jobo
20210421.1600.msg-4.ir.29S.JOBO.60kts.992mb.9.7S.47.8E.100pc.jpg
  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2021 04 15 17
JTWC升格日期:2021 04 21 08
命名日期  :2021 04 21 03
撤編日期  :2021 04 25 08
登陸地點  :莫三比克


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):60 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓985 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

95S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-10.0N-77.0E
605E9084-9865-46EF-8EDE-6BD99476AD9A.jpeg
以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-19 07:44 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-4-19 09:42 編輯

JTWC00Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 721 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 182054Z
AMSR2 GW1 89HZ IMAGE DEPICT A RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION OBSCURING A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
MARGINAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH
MINOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
OUTLIERS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT TO TC STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpeg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-19 14:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-4-19 15:10 編輯

JTWC06Z升格TD
95S INVEST 210419 0600 11.2S 58.8E SHEM 25 1005
E573A14C-BF3C-45B3-A0A8-2CF3A85746CD.jpeg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-19 21:22 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號擾動區16號,首報上望STS
ZONE PERTURBEE numéro 16

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 45 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 65 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1006 hPa.
Position le 19 avril à 16 heures locales: 10.7 Sud / 57.4 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1150 km au secteur: NORD
Distance de Mayotte: 1350 km au secteur: EST
Déplacement: OUEST, à 20 km/h.
38DB0904-3714-4935-A88D-942E132D5E52.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1366 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-4-20 04:47 | 顯示全部樓層
風場掃描過濾前有不少30KT風旗
LATEST - 2021-04-20T030503.471.jpg LATEST - 2021-04-20T030530.369.jpg
20210419.1307.f16.91pct91h91v.95S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.11.4S.57.3E.065pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-20 09:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC將評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 53.9E, APPROXIMATELY 580
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192137Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 191831Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWS
A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND LESSER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION NEAR NORTHERN MADAGASCAR IN 1-2 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpeg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-20 15:31 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR09Z升格熱帶低壓
WTIO30 FMEE 200640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/16/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16

2.A POSITION 2021/04/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 52.4 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/20 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

24H: 2021/04/21 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2021/04/21 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 75

48H: 2021/04/22 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 20

60H: 2021/04/22 18 UTC: 9.6 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 75

72H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

THE CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN MONITORED SINCE LAST WEEK VIA THE
RSMC'S ITCZ BULLETINS, WHILE CIRCULATING NEAR THE CHAGOS, HAS
EXPERIENCED A TEDIOUS DEVELOPMENT DURING ITS WESTWARD TRACK, IN A TOO
DRY ENVIRONMENT LINKED TO THE DRY PHASE OF THE MJO AND WITH A LACK OF
EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, SINCE YESTERDAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
AND ESPECIALLY THE LAST NIGHT, IT SHOWS SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION,
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR THIS THUESDAY.
THE DEEP CONVECTION OF MODERATE INTENSITY IS STILL QUITE FLUCTUATING,
AND MAINLY PRESENT IN THE NORTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE.
THE LAST ASCAT SWATHS OF THE LAST NIGHT INDICATE WINDS OF 30 KT, VERY
LOCALLY 35KT, IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, UP FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT WITH A STRUCTURE THAT REMAINS ASYMMETRIC
(SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE). THE
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS OF 0103Z SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF AN ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A CURVED BAND IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.

THERE IS A GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WITH A WESTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TRACKING IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
FARQUHAR ATOLL AND OFF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. FROM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND OFF THE COMOROS, THE STEERING FLOWS BECOME WEAKER AND THE
TRAJECTORY IS MORE UNCERTAIN , MARKING A SLOWDOWN, EVEN A LOOP ON
SOME MODELS IN THE NORTH OF THE COMOROS. IN CONSEQUENCES, THE MORE OR
LESS IMPORTANT INFLUENCE ON THE NORTH OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO
REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE TO SHORT TERM
DEVELOPMENT : IN THE LOW LAYERS, A TRADEWINDS SURGE IS ONGOING,
REINFORCED TOMORROW BY THE ACCELERATION RELATED TO THE BYPASS OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE POLEWARD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, DURING THIS TIME, THE EQUATORWARD
CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK TO VERY WEAK, WHICH BRINGS UNCERTAINTY ON
THE MORE OR LESS EFFICIENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW'S INNER CORE.
ALOFT, DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
(AROUND 10 KT OR LESS), AND NO INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD INTERFERE WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM UNTIL WEDNESDAY. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE IS QUITE GOOD
WITH A TEMPORARY LIGHT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SHORT RUN
ON THUESDAY, THEN, FROM MID-WEEK, AN INCREASE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ON
THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS PRESENT WITH SST AROUND 28-29C
AND A GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE DEPTH OF THE ISO-26C, BECOMING HIGHER
IN THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THUS, CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
GATHERED FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY, PROBABLY UNTIL
THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
FROM THURSDAY, THE INCREASE OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR
ALONG A TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD TILT THE
CONVECTIVE CORE AND WEAKEN IT BY ADVECTING DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE LOW'S CORE, MAKING IT VERY REACTIVE TO ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT
INTENSITY FORECAST.
151523lp4h1erd8fx0ro23.png 151524qppymp6k49nacccv.jpeg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-20 16:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0830Z發佈TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 200830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 52.8E TO 9.6S 47.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 52.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 53.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 634
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200256Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200623Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 25-30KT
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND
PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210830Z.//
NNNN
8C614C63-B07D-40E6-AC1D-02AA0B4E7407.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

1234下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表