老農民版夜神月

從風場掃描上來看，於傍晚開始可能已有十分接近C1及澳式C3的實力

老農民版夜神月

BoM持續上望澳式C3(65KT),JTWC則略調低上望為70KT

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1929 UTC 31/01/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lucas
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 157.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 20 knots [37 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  01/0000: 13.4S 159.3E:     045 [085]:  050  [095]:  985
+12:  01/0600: 14.1S 161.1E:     060 [105]:  055  [100]:  982
+18:  01/1200: 14.8S 162.9E:     065 [120]:  060  [110]:  979
+24:  01/1800: 15.8S 164.6E:     075 [135]:  065  [120]:  979
+36:  02/0600: 18.1S 167.1E:     085 [160]:  060  [110]:  979
+48:  02/1800: 20.0S 168.3E:     105 [195]:  050  [095]:  982
+60:  03/0600: 21.4S 168.9E:     120 [220]:  045  [085]:  984
+72:  03/1800: 22.3S 168.8E:     130 [245]:  040  [075]:  986
+96:  04/1800: 23.4S 167.7E:     165 [310]:  035  [065]:  992
+120: 05/1800: 24.6S 166.3E:     195 [355]:  030  [055]:  997
REMARKS:
Position fair based on animated IR satellite imagery and recent Ascat and amsr2
passes. The satellite presentation has been poor over the past 6 hours, with the
system struggling to produce or maintain consistent deep convection near the
centre, and only weak curvature has been evident recently. Dvorak analysis was
based on an unclear, messy curved band pattern with 0.4 wrap. FT biased to
MET/PAT.

An Ascat pass at 0951 UTC depicted maximum winds of 50 to 55 knots near the
centre, and a compact vortex with radius of gales less than 60 nautical miles in
all quadrants. Current intensity has been maintained at 50 knots based on this
data.  

Outflow remains good to the north and southeast, but is restricted in western
quadrants as an upper trough to the southwest interacts with the system. Deep
moist air surrounds the tropical low and vertical wind shear remains relatively
weak over the system centre, consistent with what little deep convection there
has been developing over all flanks of the system, and overall the environment
appears supportive of continued development, despite the recent stall in this
trend. The upper trough is forecast to move closer and amplify late today and
Tuesday, leading to an increase in vertical shear over the system. Sea surface
temperatures are warm at around 30C. Intensification at the standard rate is
forecast for the next 12-24 hours, before beginning to weaken from Tuesday as
vertical shear increases, however this weakening may be quite a slow process,
with the system deriving baroclinic energy from the upper trough, and likely
transitioning to a subtropical cyclone structure.  

The system will continue to be steered by the westerly monsoon flow and the
upper level trough, with the latter becoming dominant as the cyclone moves east
of the Eastern Region border [160 degree longitude] on Monday. This arrangement
may force
the cyclone to curve towards the south as it gets closer to Vanuatu.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0130 UTC.

dom

逐漸離開BoM責任範圍，JTWC新報認為只能稍微增強至60節隨後逐漸減弱

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 14.0 degrees South, 158.4 degrees East .
Movement: east southeast at 28 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Lucas is expected to gradually turn towards the southeast, outside Eastern Region warning area [160 degrees East].
The cyclone is expected to intensify in the short term, before beginning to weaken and transition into a subtropical cyclone during Tuesday.

老農民版夜神月

底層愈來愈紥實，但高層仍未有開眼跡象
已移入斐濟氣象局責任區，BoM發布最終報

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0623 UTC 01/02/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lucas
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 160.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [29 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  01/1200: 15.0S 161.9E:     030 [055]:  060  [110]:  981
+12:  01/1800: 15.9S 163.4E:     060 [105]:  065  [120]:  977
+18:  02/0000: 16.8S 164.7E:     065 [120]:  070  [130]:  973
+24:  02/0600: 17.7S 165.7E:     075 [135]:  065  [120]:  976
+36:  02/1800: 19.5S 167.3E:     085 [160]:  050  [095]:  984
+48:  03/0600: 21.0S 167.7E:     105 [195]:  045  [085]:  985
+60:  03/1800: 22.0S 167.5E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  988
+72:  04/0600: 22.9S 166.7E:     130 [245]:  040  [075]:  988
+96:  05/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 06/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
None.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system as it has moved out of
Eastern Region warning area.

dom

17P.LUCAS.21020112.65kts.980mb.15.7S.162.6E.

一度LG，臨門一腳JTWC升格C1，即將進入風切較大的局域並減弱

老農民版夜神月

於10Z的底層掃描可以發現底層型態已大不如前
另外FMS於12Z接手發報,定強維持BoM06Z的55KT,並認為已達顛峰

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 011520 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUCAS CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 162.6E AT
011200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 23
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LLCC EMBEDDED. TC LUCAS IS
MOVING INTO AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. TC LUCAL EXPECTED TOANA WEAKENING AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN DG YIELDING DT=4.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS DVORAK T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 17.3S 165.3E MOV ESE AT 16 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 19.3S 167.0E MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 21.0S 167.6E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 22.1S 167.6E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LUCAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
012000 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

FMS新報略微再將定強上調至60KT,距離澳式C3(三級強熱帶氣旋)只差臨門一腳
但照目前的各類資訊分析,實際情況很有可能已經是正在減弱當中,要達到澳式C3恐怕有點懸

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 012036 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUCAS CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 163.5E AT
011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LLCC EMBEDDED. SYSTEM MOVING
INTO AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. TC LUCAS STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN DG
YIELDING DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS DVORAK
T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 18.8S 165.5E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 20.6S 166.4E MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 22.0S 166.6E MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 23.0S 166.4E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LUCAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
020200 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

在強大風切的利刃摧殘下,過去24小時減弱幅度明顯
FMS18Z降格澳式C1,JTWC18Z則定強40KT

GALE WARNING 022 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 021920 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUCAS CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2
SOUTH 167.5 EAST AT 021800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.2S 167.5E at 021800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WEAKENING TO
40 KNOTS BY 031200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.6S 167.8E AT 030600UTC
AND NEAR 22.5S 167.5E AT 031800UTC.


ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 021.