At 1pm WST Wednesday 9 December, Tropical Low 02U was located near 11.5S 109.8E, approximately 450 kilometres east-southeast of Christmas Island. The system is moving to the southeast, with speed of motion increasing during Thursday to approach and possibly cross the eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley coast during Friday.
There is a Low risk of 02U developing into a tropical cyclone from late Wednesday. Although the risk of the system being classified as a tropical cyclone is Low, there is a moderate to high risk of persistent gale force winds in the northeastern quadrant of 02U, meaning damaging winds could still be experienced near the low. These stronger winds are the result of enhanced monsoonal northwesterly flow and the system's speed of movement. Heavy rainfall is also expected with the passage of the tropical low.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:
Low
Friday:
Low
Saturday:
Low
At 1pm WST Thursday 10 December, Tropical Low 02U was located near 14.7S 112.0E, over open waters approximately 800 kilometres southeast of Christmas Island and 900 kilometres northwest of Karratha. The system is accelerating towards the southeast, and is forecast to cross the east Pilbara coast during Friday, most likely during the afternoon.
There is a Low risk of 02U developing into a tropical cyclone overnight into Friday morning prior to crossing the east Pilbara coast. There is a very slight risk it moves slower than forecast and crosses the coast as late as Saturday morning. Although the risk of the system being classified as a tropical cyclone is Low, there is a moderate to high risk of persistent gale force winds in the northeastern quadrant of 02U, meaning damaging winds could still be experienced near the low. These stronger winds are the result of enhanced monsoonal northwesterly flow and the system's speed of movement. Heavy rainfall is also expected with the passage of the tropical low.
A Severe Weather Warning is in place for parts of the Pilbara and adjacent west Kimberley for the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall, in addition to Flood Warnings. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more information.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday:Very Low
