(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.5N
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A LARGE REGION OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 012103Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS AN
OBLATE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
SOUTH. A 012335Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE HIGHLY ELONGATED AND
ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND
BURST TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKER (5 TO 15 KNOT) WINDS TO THE NORTH. 96W
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH VERY LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, NAVGEM SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION, SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, INTENSIFYING TO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 140.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
提升卡
千斤頂
