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96W 低緯擾動 短暫發展

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2020-12-2 02:44 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :96 W
擾動編號日期 :2020 12 02 02
撤編日期        :2020 12
04 20
96W.INVEST.15kts-1005mb-4N-141E

20201201.1820.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.4N.141E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15 + 1

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-2 11:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0300Z評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.5N
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A LARGE REGION OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 012103Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS AN
OBLATE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
SOUTH. A 012335Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE HIGHLY ELONGATED AND
ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND
BURST TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKER (5 TO 15 KNOT) WINDS TO THE NORTH. 96W
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH VERY LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, NAVGEM SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION, SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, INTENSIFYING TO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (12).jpg 20201202.0230.himawari-8.vis.96W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.3.5N.140.4E.100pc.jpg
96W_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2020-12-2 13:10 | 顯示全部樓層
gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh162-210.gif navgem_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh90-144.gif
部分數值支持後期發展,就看能不能混個科羅旺了
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2020-12-3 11:10 | 顯示全部樓層
對流幾乎散盡,中心風力仍然偏弱,GFS新報認為只能苟延殘喘至菲律賓後滅亡
IMG_0804.JPG IMG_0803.JPG
gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh24-108.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-3 22:20 | 顯示全部樓層
系統相較白天變得更為散亂,發展前景已不樂觀
20201203.1350.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.7N.141.6E.100pc.jpg 20201203.0920.f17.91pct91h91v.96W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.5.9N.141.2E.085pc.jpg
LATEST (6).jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-4 14:58 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 140.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair (16).jpg 20201204.0620.himawari-8.vis.96W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.8.2N.140.5E.100pc.jpg
20201204.0329.gw1.89pct89h89v.96W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.8.2N.140.5E.41pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-5 01:05 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
對流盡散,FNMOC撤編
20201204.151000.WP962020.ahi.himawari8.Infrared-Gray.15kts.100p0.1p0.jpg 20201204.1500.himawari8.x.wv1km.96WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-105N-1391E.100pc.jpg
96W_gefs_latest (1).png
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