(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 91.1E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 260001Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LLC, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE EAST. A
251554Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC
LLC WITH SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. 95S IS CURRENTLY
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 29 TO
30 CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO
25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 95S WILL TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 26 November 2020
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 29 November 2020.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low (01U) is currently located near 10S 91E, in the far northwest of the region. This low is forecast to move south through till Sunday before moving west and out of the region. There is a Low risk of 01U intensifying into a tropical cyclone on Saturday and Sunday, prior to moving west of 90E and out of the region. The low is not expected to have any direct impact on the Cocos Islands, however rainfall and thunderstorms are more likely while it lies in the northwest of the region, with this activity likely to be in a significantly easing or even clearing trend by Tuesday.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday：Very Low
Saturday：Low
Sunda：yLow
There are no other tropical systems in the western region, and none are expected to develop in the next three days.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 91.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 415
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION CLOSING IN BUT STILL SHEARED WESTWARD. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 291459Z 25KM-RESOLUTION ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY A NOW REDUCED (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY TO POSSIBLY WARNING CRITERIA IN 72-120
HOURS. AFTERWARD, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED AS THE
CYCLONE TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 852
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010043Z NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD
AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 82.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6S 84.3E, APPROXIMATELY 718 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL TURNING. A 031051Z SSMIS
91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
A PARTIAL 030307 ASCAT-C PASS DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
15-20 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 20-25KTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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