老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：96 A
擾動編號日期 ：2020 年 11 月 21 日 02 時
撤編日期        ：2020 年 11 月 22 日 08 時
96A.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-8.0N-56.2E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC方才編擾隨即評級96A為Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 56.2E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER A 201530Z SCATSAT PASS INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA. THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTER IN THIS AREA. THERE IS CURRENTLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THIS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT STRONGLY INDICATIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME, AS INVEST 96A SPINS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z升格TD

IO, 96, 2020112018,   , BEST,   0,  76N,  561E,  20, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 96, 2020112100,   , BEST,   0,  70N,  561E,  25, 1004, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  150,  25,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

dom

JTWC評級提升至medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 56.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 210621Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC. A 210507Z ASCAT-A 25-KM BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 95A'S UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE. INVEST 96A IS LOCATED ABOUT 316 NM SSW OF INVEST 95A AND
APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (I.E., FUJIWARA)
WITH INCREASING APPROACH VELOCITIES. THE 21/00Z GFS RUN INDICATES
THAT INVEST 96A WILL CONTINUE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM, INVEST 95A, AND WILL TRACK CYCLONICALLY AND GET
ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95A WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

96A目前正與其東北方的95A互旋
替原本就已經雙擾共舞的阿拉伯海又投下了一個新變數

老農民版夜神月

環流幾乎全遭03A吸走，目前只剩下一個空LLCC,JTWC取消原本的Medium評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 58.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.