老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：19 E
名稱：Norbert

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 10 月 04 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 10 月 06 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：40  kt( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1002 百帕

    擾動編號資料    
以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至Medium,40%/60%

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC評級提升至High,70%,JTWC亦發布TCFA

1. Showers and thunderstorms are still showing signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.   Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two
while the system drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC21Z升格TD19E,上望45節

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 052058
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern
coast of Mexico has become better-defined today.  The associated
deep convection has also become more organized and convection has
persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In
addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western
portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have
been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data
showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the
very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial
intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is
a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track
and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not
favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance,
including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand,
the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the
cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for
the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very
warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric
moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models
could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger
scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out
of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not
show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS
guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the
forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental
factors.

The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is
expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered
by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is
forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the
depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week.
The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models
appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the
interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering.
By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in
better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge
rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast
lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

風場掃描結果不錯,NHC06Z升格TS,命名Norbert.定強40KT

19E    NORBERT 201006 0600  13.6N  106.1W EPAC   40  1002

老農民版夜神月

NHC已不再上望更高強度,目前已將定強下調至TS下限35KT
回朔找尋19E.Norbert巔峰大概於06/18Z,達45節,中心氣壓1001百帕

EP, 19, 2020100612, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1065W, 40, 1002, TS,
EP, 19, 2020100618, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1066W, 45, 1001, TS,  
EP, 19, 2020100700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1069W, 40, 1002, TS,

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

老農民版夜神月

正以TD(25節)強度苟延殘喘中,NHC預測此狀態還將持續60小時

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 091433
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased
this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in
organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression
some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25
kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast  
track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of
convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which
should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during
that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a
slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the
environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a
trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates
a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak
depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in
agreement with the majority of the global models.

Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest,
albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected
until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level
ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little
changed from the previous one, and is near the various track
consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
60H  12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

判定於昨日06Z進一步減弱為擾動強度

EP, 19, 2020101000, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1066W, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 30, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
EP, 19, 2020101006, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1067W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 30, 30, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,