霧峰追風者

  輕度颱風  
編號：2013 ( 15 W )
名稱：鯨魚 ( Kujira )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2020 年 09 月 25 日 08 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2020 年 09 月 26 日 14 時
CWB編號日期　    : 2020 年 09 月 26 日 14 時
命名日期　　　　：2020 年 09 月 27 日 08 時
停編日期　　       ：2020 年 09 月 30 日 14 時
登陸地點　　       ：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：30 m/s ( 11 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：30 m/s ( 60 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：65 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓：975 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：150 公里
十級風半徑　　：  50 公里

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科


  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-20N-160E



以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

正宜27

jma預測2天後增強為TD

老農民版夜神月

EC,GFS均支持97W將有所發展，尤其GFS模式預報對其的反應尤其明顯

目前對97W未來發展較大的劣勢是其到達巔峰時的緯度很可能已經偏高

Heigo

JMA 15Z判定 97W亦已為LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 17N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Heigo

JTWC Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.8N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 848 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, ASYMMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN A 252028Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, REVEALING A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE LLC AND
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
252252Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CONFUSED, WEAK WIND FIELD WITH NO
DISTINCT CIRCULATION AND A LARGE SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
EXTENDING TO THE NORTH-EAST. 97W IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

Heigo

JTWC Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 158.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 160.2E, APPROXIMATELY
365 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 260248Z 88.2GHZ ATMS
IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT
SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OFFSET BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HINDERING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 97W IS EXPERIENCING LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Heigo

JMA TD + GW 上望TY

Heigo

JTWC TCFA