老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：93 C
擾動編號日期 ：2020 年 09 月 16 日 20 時
撤編日期        ：2020 年 09 月 19 日 02 時
93C.INVEST.25kts.1010mb.10.1N.150.9W


  CPHC：50％  

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure around 700 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have
increased overnight, but remain displaced from the low level
center. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system, and a Tropical Depression could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally west-northwestward
at around 10 mph.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

老農民版夜神月

從昨天下午4點的風場掃描看上去風力還行，但LLCC有點狹長，CPHC展望再次提升至Medium,40%

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated
area of low pressure around 500 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii, has
become better organized over the last several hours. Environmental
conditions will be marginally conducive for development today as
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, before
conditions become hostile and chances for development decrease
tonight through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

老農民版夜神月

從風場掃描來看整體已明顯轉差，CPHC展望降至10%

1. Disorganized thunderstorms associated with an elongated trough of
low pressure are located around 660 miles south-southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii. Strong wind shear and dry air entrainment into
the system will severely limit its future downstream development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.