周子堯@FB

  強烈颱風  
編號：2010 ( 11 W )
名稱：海神 ( Haishen )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2020 年 08 月 30 日 09 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2020 年 08 月 31 日 08 時
CWB編號日期　　 : 2020 年 08 月 31 日 14 時
命名日期　　　　：2020 年 09 月 01 日 20 時
停編日期　　       ：2020 年 09 月 08 日 02 時
登陸地點　　       ：韓國 蔚山廣域市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：53 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：50 m/s ( 100 kt )
韓國氣象廳 (KMA)：55 m/s ( 107 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：135 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：920 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：300 公里
十級風半徑　　：120 公里

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科


  擾動編號資料  
95W.INVEST.15kts-1000mb-21.0N-145.0E



以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、KMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0600Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.1N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 300333Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE
ANALYZED SURFACE POSITION WHICH IS PLACED IN THE CROOK OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE IS PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCATED EAST OF 95W. A 292234Z
PARTIAL METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
SURROUNDED BY 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT OF 95W WITH A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
ECMWF IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER, SHOWING 95W TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TURNING ONTO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JMA 00Z升格熱帶低壓。

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.1N 145.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
247 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH A 302111Z SSMIS COMPOSITE 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 302328Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
DEPICTS  A 15-20 KNOT DEVELOPING CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST. INVEST 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD NORTHERLY DIFFLUENCE,
WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING INVEST 95W DEVELOPING SLOWLY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

ktf

副高高緯阻塞太變態了,印象中這種環流形勢也不多見,所以導致兩颱風往高緯走時
是以北北西走然後併入西風大槽

非常少見的情況

霧峰追風者

梅莎西太風王坐不久就要被海神篡位!?  GFS 巔峰上望925百帕。

t02436

JMA 06Z發布GW

熱帯低気圧
令和02年08月31日16時25分 発表

<31日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯 23度50分(23.8度)
東経 146度55分(146.9度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<01日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯 23度25分(23.4度)
東経 144度30分(144.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

ha093405

霧峰追風者 發表於 2020-8-31 15:06
梅莎西太風王坐不久就要被海神篡位!?  GFS 巔峰上望925百帕。

其實這一報最後還有大彩蛋，有一中颱會從台灣海峽近逼西部平原，一切只是預報，別太認真~