2. An area of low pressure appears to be forming a couple of hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week
while it moves slowly northwestward, near or parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, areas of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure
area which formed earlier this morning a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better
defined. Conditions appear conducive for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while it moves slowly northwestward, near or
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely
in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
WTPN22 PHNC 232030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231451ZAUG20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 231500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 95.4W TO 14.5N 97.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 95.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.9N 95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
231549Z 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 98E. ANALYSES INDICATES AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 98E
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242030Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.4W.//
NNNN
2. A small low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system if it does not
move inland over Mexico, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next couple of days while it moves slowly northwestward,
near or parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely
in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Location: 14.9°N 95.5°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 nm
Location: 16.0°N 96.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 nm
2. Satellite derived wind data indicate that the small low pressure
system that was located just off of the coast of south-central
Mexico near Puerto Angel has opened up into a trough of low
pressure. Consequently, development of this system appears to be
less likely. Regardless of development, areas of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and
northern Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
WTPN22 PHNC 251930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (INVEST 98E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242021ZAUG20//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251451ZAUG20//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 242030). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.5W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 97.1W, APPROXIMATELY 27 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA
ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. MICROWAVE AND ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATE TROUGHING
EXTENDING THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND NO LONGER
INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE
FORECAST, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
2. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 107.3W.//
NNNN
2. An elongated area of low pressure near the coast of south-central
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system has become unlikely due to unfavorable
upper-level winds and close proximity to land. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely
in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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