老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：14 L
擾動編號日期：2020 年 08 月 17 日 04 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 08 月 00 日 00 時
97L INVEST 200816 1800 12.3N 50.6W ATL 25 1009


NHC：20％  

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a fast-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the
Windward Islands.  This system is expected to move westward at
about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is
likely to limit significant development while the system approaches
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Monday, and moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  After that time, the system
is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for
development during the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

--猶加敦半島

老農民版夜神月

NHC提升展望至Medium,40%，系統後期或將進入墨西哥灣

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms, along
with strong gusty winds on the north side of the disturbance.  
Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next
day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.  After that time, however,
the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC再提升展望至60%/80%

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in
association with a tropical wave currently located over the central
Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of this system is possible
over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea.  After that time, the wave is
forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week when the system
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至70%。

1. A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras
and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and
southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至90%

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea.  Satellite imagery
suggests that the circulation is becoming better defined and if
these development trends continue, a tropical depression is likely
to form today or tonight as the system approaches the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.  Interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across
a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this
week and this weekend.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the disturbance system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

周子堯@FB

NOAA消息指出：預計15Z進行飛機實測，預計19Z進入其環流範圍，NHC看實測後，將決定21Z是否升格，如果風場封閉有LLCC，估計有機會在21Z前後升格14L。
而另一班實測飛機，預計明天21/0830Z起飛。

老農民版夜神月

FWC-N20/1400Z發布TCFA

WTNT22 KNGU 201400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 78.8W TO 18.1N 84.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 78.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND IF THESE
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS CONTINUE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 211400Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

周子堯@FB

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2020-8-20 21:46
FWC-N20/1400Z發布TCFA

15Z，NHC升格14L

AL, 14, 2020082012,   , BEST,   0, 150N,  790W,  30, 1007, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,   FOURTEEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027, TRANSITIONED, alB72020 to al142020,