老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：90 C
擾動編號日期：2020 年 08 月 15 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 08 月 21 日 20 時
90C.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.11.3N.152W


  CPHC：40%

1. An area of low pressure is located around 600 miles
south- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Shower and thunderstorm activity
have become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development during
the next few days and a tropical depression may form later this
weekend or early next week as the system moves steadily west at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

老農民版夜神月

CPHC展望提升至50%

1. An area of low pressure is located around 550 miles south of Hilo,
Hawaii. Shower and thunderstorm activity with the feature has
persisted over the past six hours. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development during
the next few days and a tropical depression may form later this
weekend or early next week as the system moves steadily west at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 08Z發布TCFA，長期系集趨向西太

WTPN21 PHNC 160800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90C)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 154.4W TO 10.5N 161.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 155.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.8N 155.0W, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM SOUTH OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160459Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170800Z.//
NNNN

king111807

CPHC提升展望至60%

1. A broad area of low pressure is located around 690 miles south of
Honolulu, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system continue to increase in coverage and intensity.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression may form during the next day
or two as the system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

king111807

CPHC展望降至40%

1. A nearly stationary area of low pressure about 700 miles south of
Honolulu, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and lacks significant organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days as the system moves toward
the west near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

king111807

JTWC取消TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 170030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751Z AUG 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 160800)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 160800). THE
AREA OF CONVECTION(INVEST 90C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 156.3W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5158.0W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 162041Z GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90C HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO A LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THEREFORE, IT IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC 17/0030Z直接撤評，不看好未來發展。

WTPN21 PHNC 170030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751Z AUG 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 160800)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 160800). THE
AREA OF CONVECTION(INVEST 90C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 156.3W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5158.0W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 162041Z GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90C HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO A LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THEREFORE, IT IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

CPHC展望降至Low,30%.不過五日發展概率仍有50%,系統後期亦有進入西太平洋的可能,值得持續觀察

1. A nearly stationary area of low pressure about 700 miles south of
Honolulu, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and lacks significant organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days as the system moves toward
the west slowly.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.