簽到天數: 3206 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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king111807|2020-8-9 16:27
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JTWC發佈TCFA
WTPN22 PGTW 090830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.1N 148.7E TO 26.0N 142.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.0N 148.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 26.0N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM NORTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 090647Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT, IF ANY, WITH A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100900Z.//
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